How Many Illegal Immigrants Are in the US in 2026?
After reaching a record 14 million in 2023, the unauthorized immigrant population peaked in early 2025 and has been declining sharply since — driven by record-low border crossings and the largest deportation operation in US history.
The Short Answer for 2026
The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States peaked in late 2024 to early 2025 and has been declining significantly since. Most estimates place the current 2026 population in the range of 11 to 13 million, down from a record high of approximately 14 to 16 million depending on the methodology and time period used.
No one can count this population exactly — it cannot be measured directly. What the data clearly shows is that the trajectory reversed sharply starting in early 2025, driven by record-low border crossings and an intensified federal enforcement operation under the Trump administration.
The honest 2026 number is best given as a declining estimate range, not a single count. The population that was growing from 2021 through 2024 is now contracting at a historically unusual pace.
The 2023 Peak: Pew Research’s Benchmark
The most widely cited recent baseline comes from Pew Research Center, which published its methodology-driven estimate in August 2025. Pew found that the unauthorized immigrant population reached 14 million in 2023 — the highest number in its historical series, surpassing the previous peak of approximately 12.2 million in 2007.
Pew also reported that unauthorized immigrants represented about 4.1% of the total US population and 27% of the foreign-born population in 2023.
The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimated approximately 13.7 million unauthorized immigrants in mid-2023 using its own methodology — slightly different from Pew due to differing definitions and modeling choices, but broadly consistent.
What Happened in 2024 and Early 2025
Migration patterns changed rapidly between 2021 and early 2025. Large numbers of people arrived through border encounters, humanitarian parole programs, asylum backlogs, and visa overstays — pushing the unauthorized population to its record level.
The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) estimated the foreign-born population reached approximately 15.8 million unauthorized immigrants in January 2025, its peak, before declining by approximately 1.6 million by July 2025 — a roughly 10% decline in six months.
Pew Research separately noted that the overall immigrant population (including legal and unauthorized) reached an all-time high of 53.3 million in January 2025, then declined to about 51.9 million by June 2025.
The 2025 Enforcement Effect
The decline since early 2025 is directly linked to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operation, which began on January 20, 2025.
Key enforcement figures as reported by DHS and independently tracked sources:
- Total departures (January 20 – December 10, 2025): DHS reported approximately 2.5 million total departures — a figure that includes both formal deportations and voluntary self-departures
- Formal removals (FY2025): Approximately 290,000 to 527,000 verified by independent tracking, depending on counting methodology
- ICE detention population: Rose from approximately 40,000 (January 2025) to 66,000 by December 2025 — a 75% increase
- Arrests with no criminal record: Surged sharply in 2025 as enforcement expanded beyond the prior priority-based approach
Border crossings dropped to historic lows by late 2025. CBP reported:
- October 2025: 30,561 total encounters — 29% below the previous record low of 43,010 set in October 2012, and 92% below the Biden-era peak of 370,883
- November 2025: 30,367 encounters
- December 2025: 30,698 encounters
- January 2026: 34,626 encounters — a 58% decline from January 2025
The administration implemented a zero catch-and-release policy beginning January 2025. CBP One, the appointment-based entry app, was terminated immediately on January 20, 2025, producing an 85% drop in Southwest border apprehensions within the first two weeks.
The Dallas Fed Projection for 2026
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published an analysis in January 2026 finding that net unauthorized immigration turned negative in February 2025 and remained negative through the end of 2025. The Dallas Fed projected a net outflow rate of approximately 89,000 per month continuing through mid-2026 — meaning more unauthorized immigrants are leaving the US each month than are arriving.
If that rate continued into mid-2026, it would represent a cumulative decline of roughly 1.5 to 2 million since the January 2025 peak.
Current 2026 Estimates
Comprehensive updated estimates for 2026 are not yet published, as the most reliable surveys (the American Community Survey and Current Population Survey) typically lag 12–18 months behind real time. What the available data supports:
| Source / Estimate | Number | Reference Period |
|---|---|---|
| Pew Research Center (published Aug 2025) | 14 million | 2023 (record high) |
| Migration Policy Institute | 13.7 million | Mid-2023 |
| Center for Immigration Studies | 15.8 million | January 2025 (peak) |
| CIS estimate after 6-month decline | 14.2 million | July 2025 |
| Dallas Fed implied trajectory | ~11–12 million | Mid-2026 projection |
The Dallas Fed’s trajectory implies a population of roughly 11 to 12 million by mid-2026 if the net outflow pace has held. That would bring the population back to approximately where it was in 2020–2021, before the large post-pandemic migration surge.
Why the Number Is Hard to Count — Even Now
The US does not have a survey or database that directly identifies every unauthorized immigrant. Researchers estimate the population indirectly by starting with Census Bureau survey data, subtracting those with documented legal status, and adjusting for undercounting.
That means estimates depend on:
- Survey quality and response rates (which may fall during aggressive enforcement periods)
- Legal-status assumptions (how parole, DACA, TPS, and pending asylum cases are classified)
- Whether people who self-deported or left voluntarily are captured in surveys
- Migration changes after the survey reference date
During periods of heightened enforcement, surveys may actually undercount the remaining population, since unauthorized immigrants are less likely to respond to government surveys. This adds additional uncertainty to estimates made during or shortly after major enforcement surges.
”Illegal” vs. “Unauthorized”
Many people search for “illegal immigrants,” but researchers typically use the term unauthorized immigrants. The terms are related but “unauthorized” is more precise, because the population includes several different legal situations:
- People who entered without inspection at the border
- People who entered legally but overstayed visas
- People with pending asylum cases
- People with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) or humanitarian parole who may be legally permitted to remain temporarily while being classified as “removable”
- DACA recipients (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals)
Immigration status is not binary in all cases, and different legal categories are counted differently by different estimating organizations.
What We Can Say Confidently About 2026
Several points are clear from the available data:
- The unauthorized immigrant population reached a record high of approximately 14 million or more in 2023–early 2025, depending on the methodology
- Net unauthorized immigration turned negative in February 2025 and has remained negative (Dallas Fed, January 2026)
- Border apprehensions are at multi-decade lows — consistently around 30,000/month as of late 2025 and early 2026 (CBP data)
- Formal deportations in FY2025 were approximately 74% higher than the same point in the two prior fiscal years (ICE data)
- The total unauthorized population in mid-2026 is likely lower than at any point since 2020, though an exact figure will not be available until the American Community Survey publishes 2026 data in late 2027
Final Takeaway
If someone asks how many illegal immigrants are in the US in 2026, the most accurate answer is: the population peaked around 14 to 16 million in early 2025 and has been declining sharply since — driven by the largest federal immigration enforcement operation in US history and record-low border crossing numbers. Most projections suggest the population is now in the range of 11 to 13 million and continuing to fall, though a precise real-time count is not possible given survey lag times.
Treat any single exact figure with caution. The population is changing rapidly, definitions vary across estimating organizations, and the most reliable surveys will not reflect 2026 conditions until late 2027.